Zidane enters ”El Derbi Madrileño” (the Madrid Derby) Sunday, in the unfamiliar position of looking up at neighbours Atletico topping the league table. He will feel confident of doing the double after beating Atletico 2-0 in December. Real are on a seven (7) game unbeaten away La Liga game run, including a massive Nou Camp victory over Barcelona. Diego Simeone’s season is currently better in comparison. The team has also improved as an attacking force with the addition of Luis Suarez. Both teams stand to gain more from avoiding defeat than winning the game, so anticipate a tough tactical battle.
Atletico have failed to win the Madrid Derby since February 2015. Despite the poor derby record, an Atletico win would not be an upset considering each team’s current standing. A win for Atletico would increase the lead to ten (10) points. Defeat would close Real’s deficit to four (4) points, throwing the title race wide open.
Kieran Trippier is back following his 10-week ban. Atletico also have Yannick Carrasco returning from injury, while Thomas Lemar and Jose Maria Gimenez will face late fitness tests. Real will hope Karim Benzema is available, but Sergio Ramos, Eden Hazard and Dani Carvajal will not be fit.
These neighbours play a contrasting style. Atletico is compact and capable of withstanding pressure then counter-attacking with speed and precision vs Real’s possession style. Simeone will set up with the usual 3-1-4-2, switching to 5-3-2 when out of possession. Atletico will seek to use Carrasco’s and Llorente’s pace in the wing-back positions to get up the pitch. The wing-backs will look for the Koke in midfield or supply cutbacks and crosses to the strikers. Alternatively, Llorente can play centrally to supply passes for midfield runners or forwards while Vrsaljko or the returning Trippier, starts wide in the wing-back position. Suarez is clinical and dangerous on headers; additionally, all Atletico attackers are strong dribblers capable of playing short intricate passes around the Real defence. Correa is likely to start ahead of Felix. Felix can come on to deadly effect with his vision, skill, creativity and shooting ability.
Real have quality all around the park, but the team loses some potency without doubtful Benzema. Additionally, Real is not compact defensively, and errors have increased without Ramos and Carvajal. Real will seek to use pace, skill and tactical flexibility in the attacking third. Isco, used in a false-9 role, can easily interchange with Vinicius and Asensio. His roles include; dropping between the lines, pulling defenders out of position and creating space for teammates making runs into the box. Real will have more of the ball, and if the team takes the chances created, the derby dominance will continue.
Simeone cannot be disappointed with his team’s season, but he will want to avoid a 3rd consecutive home defeat in all competitions. The current Real Madrid team presents the best chance to improve both the derby and home form, but Real will see Atletico’s form dip as an advantage. Tactics will take centre stage in this crucial six-pointer fixture, but a 0-0 draw is the most likely outcome.